Saturday, February 9, 2008

 

Yahoo's Last Line of Defence - Jerry Yang

What's likely to go on Jerry Yang's tombstone is that he was the Yahoo guy who rejected Microsoft's offer. Ok, I'm going out on a limb here, considering Yahoo's Board is yet to make a decision. But there are whispers about Jerry Yang hammering out an alternative deal where the investor has a stake in keeping Yahoo as Yahoo, rather than a vehicle for another brand's aspirations, unlike what Microsoft has in mind. Let's seperate the frenzied speculation from the facts.


WSJ - Yahoo considers playing a Google defense - Yahoo Inc.'s board of directors discussed its options Friday in the face of Microsoft Corp.'s unsolicited offer to buy the Internet company, including an advertising-outsourcing pact with Google Inc., people familiar with the matter said. Meeting by telephone, the Yahoo directors also discussed strategy for negotiating a higher bid from Microsoft in the event they pursue the offer, these people said.


Silicon Valley Insider - Softbank to save Yahoo? - The latest in a long line of potential Yahoo saviors, Softbank, appears to have jumped into the ring just before Yahoo's board meets to discuss the company's fate. The president of a Japanese mobile carrier that owns a stake in Yahoo said Thursday he is in talks with Yahoo chief Jerry Yang about how to respond to Microsoft's takeover bid."The talks have just started," said Masayoshi Son, president of Softbank Corp., at a news conference about earnings. "We need much more exchange before coming to a final decision."


Yahoo! Inc. CEO Jerry Yang's letter to his employees on Feb 6th. The board is focused on maximizing the value of Yahoo!'s tremendous assets for our shareholders. And it is going to take the time it needs to do it right. Our board is thoughtfully evaluating a wide range of potential strategic alternatives in what is a complex and evolving landscape.


Keywords here - employees, time it needs to do it right, strategic alternatives. First, he's more concerned about the impact on his employees than his shareholders. Second, this issue may not be resolved immediately. Lastly, there are other options on the table.


CNET News - No love lost from Jerry Yang when it comes to Microsoft - People familiar with Yahoo's chief executive say he "can't stand" Microsoft, which can't come as a big surprise considering the decade-long rivalry between the companies. "You don't disagree with Jerry in meetings," says an informant who has participated in planning sessions with Yang and his lieutenants. "That's just not the Yahoo way." if Microsoft's bid does indeed carry the day, you won't need anyone to push Yang out. He'll head for the exits as soon as the lawyers say he legally can turn in his corporate key.


And lastly, from the big guy himself, who's saving up a juicy breaking news story on the Yahoo deal for Monday. I actually have a fascinating piece of intel about the Yahoo! deal, but I cannot release it til Monday. See this space then for a shocker.
I have you book-marked. :)


So, what do we make of all that? First, that Jerry Yang is not, period, going to be a part of the new equation, if Microsoft gets what it wants. If you accept the fact that the Yahoo Board won't throw Jerry Yang under the bus, that leaves one option - Yahoo has to come up with an alternative investor. Bottomline - Yahoo has two requirements. First, that Yahoo remain Yahoo. And second, that the investor pumps in capital and gives Yahoo time to engineer a turnaround.


Who is Jerry Yang going to find that will agree to both? Certainly not Microsoft and Google, neither of which have any interest whatsoever in Yahoo's long term success. And no other search company, or even another internet company, in the U.S., has the kind of muscle needed to keep a giant like Yahoo afloat without in any way taking over the advertising space.


That leaves suitors outside the U.S., who might have some vested interest in Yahoo's long term prospects, and as such, might want to invest some more to get a bigger stake (remember Countrywide-BofA?). They would be sufficiently respectful of Jerry Yang and Yahoo, and this would allow Jerry Yang and his band of Yahoos to still call the tune, while making cosmetic changes to reduce overheads, satisfy shareholders, keep microsoft off the premises, and gain time to come up with a viable business model.


Microsoft may yet come to regret making this move. Because just before they made this hostile offer, Yahoo was dead in the water and listing. If it now turns out that Yahoo will remain Yahoo, while bringing in new funding and being forced to make the corrections necessary to meet shareholder expectations, they will continue to remain the No. 2 in the search market. Which means that Microsoft just shot their own search ambitions in the foot with this offer....Ironic, but totally Microsoft.

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